Chasing Rabbbits

🕳️ Incentives Matter: Soccer Edition

Scene: 1994 Carribean Cup Tournament
Cast: Barbados, Grenada
Motivation: Grenada wins to advance. Barbados wins by 2+ goals to advance.

The Golden Goal rule was implemented to avoid ties ending in shootouts. Meaning a goal scored during overtime is worth 2 goals and ends the match. Goal differential was the tie breaker to advance.

At the 83 minute mark, Grenada scored, cutting Barbados' lead to 2-1. The score remained the same at the 87 minute mark, until Barbados scored on themselves to create a tie in the hopes of opening up the Golden Goal opportunity.

Now, Grenada just needed to score on either goal, while Barbados had to defend both for the remainder of regulation.

Scene: 1982 World Cup
Cast: West Germany, Austria
Motivation: Austria advances as long as they don't lose by more than 2 goals. West Germany advances with a win.

West Germany scored at the 10 minute mark, setting the score at 1-0. Neither team had anything further to play for and basically stopped playing.

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In case you care about the results: Austria, Barbados, and West Germany advanced.

FIFA didn't punish any of the teams as they followed the optimal strategy, but killed the Golden Goal and started playing final group stage games for each block at the same time.
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source: Everything Everywhere Daily podcast
wikipedia: Barbados vs. Grenada
youtube: Barbados vs. Grenada clips
wikipedia: Austria vs. West Germany, a.k.a. the Disgrace of Gijón

#incentives #rabbbit holes